We’re All Gonna Die!!

…but probably not from swine flu.

[Photo by Jane Coleman. Used with permission only retroactively, because I’m a dumbass.]

And so it begins, this year’s health scare, and already it’s looking to beat out SARS for the quickest spread of misinformation. It’s on every news site and front page: SWINE FLU! SWINE FLU DISCOVERED IN THE U.S.! SWINE FLU DISCOVERD IN OHIO!

Hmm, I wonder why. Perhaps it’s because, like during any other fad, the people who create “report” the news are making decisions based on what will generate the most readership, thereby converting into ad sales, which converts into money in the pockets of the people who make descisions about what news to report.

No, I see no problem with that process, why do you ask?

By way of perspective, some numbers: In Mexico, where this outbreak is thought to have originated, there have been about 1600 reported cases thought to be swine flu as of this writing. Of those, about 100 people have died. I do not make light of those deaths. These are people with families and loved ones, and these are genuine tragedies, especially when you start wondering if those deaths could have been prevented with adequate medical care. But that’s a topic for another time.

No, I do not make light of those deaths, and 1 in 16 truly is a frighteningly high mortality rate for a flu. But remember two things: Mexico has more than one hundred million people. So while the chances of dying from swine flu once you’ve caught it seem to be rather high, the chances of the average person dying from it are at this point literally one in a million.

And two, this is in Mexico, where much of the country is rural and/or poor — which means less likely to visit a doctor for what feels like (and for most people, apparently is) little more than a common flu. So the number of people who’ve actually caught it — and fought it, and didn’t even think to contact a pricey or hard-to-reach doctor about it —  is likely to be much, much higher than 1600.

“Butbutbut,” you say, “the WHO called swine flu a ‘a public health emergency of international concern’!” Oooh, sounds scary. Until you look at the WHO website:

A public health emergency of international concern refers to an extraordinary public health event which is determined, under specific procedures:

• to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease; and

• to potentially require a coordinated international response.

Hmm, not so scary.

Now, don’t misunderstand me. It’s important to take reasonable precautions when dealing with a situation like this; y’know, wash your hands and don’t go out if you’re sick, that sorta thing. But it’s also important to keep perspective, and to remember that in our modern, cable-news-driven society, things like this almost always seem much worse than they are.

We’ll be seeing swine flu news everywhere for weeks to come, no doubt. But remember that for awhile we saw Paris Hilton news everywhere, too. The media follows the money, and the money follows the fad, and the fad follows psychology — not reality, at least not necessarily.

So let’s all calm the hell down, OK?

[Thanks to xkcd for inspiring this rant.]

Update: I never thought I’d say this, but thank you, CNN, for providing a bit of perspective. (And thanks to Mike for the link.)